Il ciclo di adeguamento dei costi delle batterie in Cina sta diventando un vero segnale di approvvigionamento

L’industria cinese delle batterie sta entrando in una nuova fase di adeguamento dei costi. Under the official policy released on luglio 16, 2026, le batterie primarie al litio e le batterie agli ioni di litio saranno soggette a a 2% imposta sui consumi da settembre 1, 2026, con il tasso previsto in aumento 4% da settembre 1, 2027. Allo stesso tempo, battery export rebate support has already been reduced earlier this year, and is set to be canceled from gennaio 1, 2027.

For the market, this is not just a tax headline. It is a signal that future battery pricing may become less stable, especially as suppliers, module makers, and PACK integrators begin adjusting quotations around cost pressure, inventory, and delivery timing.

Analysis
In practical terms, the impact will not appear in exactly the same way across every battery project.

For domestic business, the new consumption tax is likely to create direct upward pressure on lithium battery pricing. Even if some suppliers absorb part of the cost in the short term, it is difficult for the market to keep prices unchanged indefinitely once tax, margin, and raw-material pressure begin to overlap.

For export business, the situation is more layered. The new consumption tax matters, but the more immediate pressure in many cases may still come from the export rebate reduction and the planned cancellation of the rebate next year. This means buyers may increasingly see shorter quote-validity periods, more cautious price commitments, and greater sensitivity around shipment timing.

For battery modules and custom PACK projects, the message is especially clear: projects that are planned early will usually have more pricing stability than projects that wait until cost pressure is already fully visible in the market.

Our Recommendation
A LYTH, we believe this is the right time for customers to move from “watching the market” to “planning ahead.”

Our recommendation is straightforward:

• confirm core cell, modulo, or PACK models earlier
• lock project schedules sooner where demand is already clear
• review alternative sourcing options before pricing tightens
• avoid leaving volume decisions too close to delivery windows

Earlier planning does not only help control cost. It also improves production coordination, lead-time visibility, and engineering communication.

For customers with ongoing or upcoming battery projects, a more proactive sourcing timeline will likely be the best defense against later price increases.

Vista LYTH
A changing policy environment does not automatically create disruption, but it does reward buyers who prepare earlier. In the months ahead, timing may become just as important as price.

Sources
State Taxation Administration policy notice on battery consumption tax, luglio 16, 2026
Official notice on export rebate adjustment for battery products, gennaio 8, 2026